It’s important to understand how many people your event can draw in before you set out to launch your ticketing campaign. This is why we did some number crunching and came up with a few pointers to take into account when projecting your expected number.

This post will help you ballpark the size of the audience you can expect to your online show with your existing fanbase.

Granted, the number can fluctuate depending on the time of day and day of the week for your event, we’ve looked at the optimistic scenario where your show is held at the time your fans prefer and the theme/playlist/concept is something your fans enjoy.

The highest conversion rate across industries is currently via email, so let’s say you have around 200 fans subscribed to your mailing list. Depending on how good your subject line is, how active and/or recent the base is, you can get somewhere between 10 and 40% open rate for your email announcing the concert, with 20% being the average.

Among those who open your message, you can expect up to 50% of conversions to bought online concert tickets (the most optimistic scenario for a very engaged fanbase, good timing and topic) with the average being closer to 10%. With these numbers about 40 people will open your email and you can expect 4 to 10 ticket sales.

Send out your email blast several times with varying graphics and/or messaging and subject line to get more conversion out of your email list.

With an average, reasonably active 200-person email list, you can expect around 10-15 ticket buys over several email blasts.

Now, let’s look at social media.

Many artists rely on their social media pages to spread the word about their upcoming releases and concerts. It’s important to note that social media has a much lower average expected conversion rate than email. Since Facebook and Instagram are what most artists have the biggest followings at, let’s analyze these mediums.

Say, you have 1,000 followers on your Facebook page. Remember that unlike email, your post will not reach all of your page subscribers – some will not see it simply because they did not check their feed that day (or week), others might not scroll far enough to see your post, and for some the algorithm might not show your post.

Only a portion of the subscribers will see your event poster and the call to get tickets to your live stream concert.

You can and should make multiple posts about your event since not everyone is scrolling all the way through their feeds every day, but some will never see your post either way just because they engage with your page so infrequently it does not appear in their feed.

Organic reach for pages is often reported around 10%, which means around 100 people will see your concert announcement if you post it once. Since social media generally has lower engagement compared to email, we can estimate a couple of ticket buys off each post you make (and decreasing after maybe 5 posts). In total, organically, you can expect 5-10 ticket sales for your 1,000-member Facebook page.

If you have the budget, you can boost your promo post to reach more people with the info on your upcoming online music event, upping your sales this way.

For Instagram, average organic reach is reported at around 20%, bringing you slightly higher conversion for your Instagram posts and Stories. With the same number of followers, you can get double ticket sales. For 1,000 audience on Facebook you can get 5 or more ticket sales, while on Instagram that’s going to be 10 or more. We are talking multiple posts and Stories, mind you.

Now, let’s see what we have so far. Around 5 people from your 200 person email list, 5 or more from 1,000 person Facebook page, 10 or more off your Instagram. That’s 20 paying attendees without ads, DMs, or personal face-to-face invites (all of which has the potential to increase your attendance significantly).

With general admission tickets at $3 a piece and a few bundled tickets like admission + song dedication ($5), admission + afterparty access ($10), admission + merch ($25), VIP support the artist ticket ($40), you can potentially sell 15x$3 + 1x$5 + 2x$10 + 1x$25 + 1x$40 = $135 worth of tickets for this one show with a modest unpaid promo campaign.

If you are playing your online show on Show4me (and you should), consider the number of fans, including premium fans you have in your Artist club.

For example, Brazilian musician Larissa Goretkin held a sold out online show in May and she sold all 50 available tickets to the event. She has 53 fans in her Show4me Artist club.

Another sold out – 75 tickets – is Elizabeth Michelle Heryawan’s June relaxing piano online concert. Her Show4me Artist club fan count stands at 54.

Since Show4me is a specialized music interaction network, your fan count here is going to be closer to the number of people you can expect to show up to your event. This is especially true if your subscribers have just joined your Artist club and are freshly excited about your music and news.

Premium subscription to your Artist club (for $1 a year) helps further estimate how many of your fans are open to contribute financially to your art. To incentivize the premium membership for your fans, upload your music to your Artist club as the premium membership to an Artist club includes unlimited listening to the music you’ve uploaded to your Artist club Discography. Additionally, your premium fans can DM you.

The more premium subscribers you have, the larger attendance you can expect to your online show (although do keep in mind that not all of your fans will be able to make it to all of your events, regardless of whether or not they are free or ticketed).

Final thoughts

To calculate prospective online show attendance for your show, adjust the starting points for the number of subscribers to your email list, your Facebook and Instagram pages, and multiply them by the average conversion rates for each medium. Note that your conversion rates will vary depending on the quality of your subscriber base – the more engaged and involved with your music and career your fans are, the higher conversion for your show you will get (but it’s still not going to be 100% or 50%).

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